Market Conditions
LV tops List of Risky Home Markets
By Al Tamura

Las Vegas is at the top of the list of home markets most likely to decrease in value over the next two years.  The PMI U.S. Market Risk Index states that Las Vegas has an over 60% chance to experience depreciation of its citys home values within the next two years.  The riskiest of all markets is Las Vegas, Phoenix, Riverside, CA, and West Palm Beach, FL.  Most of the risky markets are located in California or Florida.

This assessment of risky markets is based on the fact that these markets have had some of the largest price increases during a 5 year housing boom and are now experiencing declining sales.

Nationwide, the average chance for a price downturn in the 50 largest markets is 34%.  Boston and Washington are the riskiest markets in the East, with a 50% chance of decline.

PMI's risk Index estimates the probability that home prices will fall within the next two years but does not forecast the depth of the decline.